In order to pursue our goal at ADESA to ensure that our customers have access to information that will help them buy and sell with us more efficiently, we have completely rebuilt the ADESA Market Guide from the ground up.
The new ADESA Market Guide, or AMG, is a wholesale valuation tool that is available at no cost to all ADESA customers. AMG was made to help research ADESA inventory and identify the fair market price for the vehicles that our customers buy and sell at ADESA auctions. AMG is designed to predict the expected sale price for a specific VIN, at a specific ADESA auction, within the next 7 days from when the price is calculated.
Why did AMG predict this price?
We aren’t able to provide a detailed explanation for AMG’s price predictions for a specific vehicle, due to the complexity of the AMG model and the large number of variables it considers when predicting a price.
In general, the difference between AMG and other guidebook pricing can be based on:
- AMG prices account for predicted depreciation and seasonality, rather than historical averages.
- AMG prices are predicted based on all transactions in the ADESA wholesale market, rather than just transacted vehicles with the same Make/Year/Model/Trim as the vehicle being priced.
- AMG prices are VIN-specific, accounting for differences in options or packages.
- AMG prices are predicted based on the specific day when the vehicle is being sold.
How are AMG Price Estimates Different From Other Guidebooks?
The biggest difference between AMG and other guidebooks is the methodology that AMG uses to predict prices.
Unlike other guidebooks, AMG does not calculate a price as a weighted average of recent transactions for the same Year/Make/Model/Trim (“YMMT”). These guidebook prices often “follow the market”, rather than predicting future prices. They also perform poorly for vehicles with very few recent transactions.
To resolve these issues, the AMG model uses Machine Learning to forecast the future price of a specific VIN based on overall market conditions. This is possible because AMG not only considers transactions for the same year, make, model, and trim, but also all other recent transactions at ADESA auctions in its predictions, with different YMMT transactions being weighted differently depending on how “similar” they are to the specific VIN.
This approach has two key benefits:
- Because AMG uses the history of all ADESA transactions, rather than just the history for a specific YMMT, it has a deeper “understanding” for how prices move based on previous behavior, allowing it to quickly adapt to changing depreciation and seasonality and reduce “lag”.
- The AMG model takes all of the attributes of a specific VIN into account, including variations beyond the trim level such as packages and options. This allows for more variation in pricing within YMMTs.
Additionally, AMG is the only wholesale pricing model based on ADESA auction transactions, which makes it best suited for understanding the predicted value of vehicles that will be sold or purchased through ADESA auctions.
How can I see the Base AMG Price?
AMG does not calculate a “base price” for an YMMT or apply “adjustments” to a “base price” in order to reach the final predicted price for a specific VIN. This is because the “base price” that is provided by other guidebooks is based on an average mileage and CR for an YMMT, and AMG does not calculate average prices or other values.
Instead, AMG predicts a unique VIN-specific price which factors in not only the vehicle’s odometer, CR, and sale location, but also dozens of other data points including depreciation, seasonality, and macroeconomic factors.
Why isn’t an AMG value available for some VINs?
While we can provide an AMG value for over 95% of VINs, some vehicles are too uncommon or new to the wholesale market for our model to be able to predict a price. In these cases, we will display nothing to avoid presenting misleading or inaccurate data.
Why did AMG predict this price?
We aren’t able to provide a detailed explanation for AMG’s price predictions for a specific vehicle, due to the complexity of the AMG model and the large number of variables it considers when predicting a price.
In general, the difference between AMG and other guidebook pricing can be based on:
- AMG prices account for predicted depreciation and seasonality, rather than historical averages.
- AMG prices are predicted based on all transactions in the ADESA wholesale market, rather than just transacted vehicles with the same Make/Year/Model/Trim as the vehicle being priced.
- AMG prices are VIN-specific, accounting for differences in options or packages.
- AMG prices are predicted based on the specific day when the vehicle is being sold.
How do I access AMG?
AMG price predictions are available complimentary to ADESA buyers and sellers on a number of different systems.
AutoIMS
AMG values can be displayed in AutoIMS in the ‘Guidebook Value’ field.
ADESA Seller Reports
Contact your ADESA Rep to learn more about how you can use AMG to enhance your ADESA sales strategy, including Block Summaries, portfolio evaluations, and flooring recommendations!
autoniq
AMG is available within the autoniq platform as a paid subscription.
Simulcast
You can view the AMG from the current vehicle on the block in the Autoniq plugin in AMG, even if you aren’t subscribed to Autoniq!
More ways to access AMG are on the way!
How Often is AMG Updated?
AMG pricing is updated every week on Sunday.