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CarValue

What is CarValue?

CarValue is a tool that provides dealers with pricing insights to help make informed buying decisions at auction. CarValue uses advanced predictive technology trained on millions of real wholesale and retail transactions to generate price predictions.

These same insights are used internally by Carvana for their own vehicle purchasing and pricing decisions. We wanted to make this data available so that all of our users can have access to the same pricing intelligence.

CarValue provides three key Insights that help you evaluate every vehicle:

  • Wholesale Price
  • Retail Price
  • Retail Spread

How do the CarValue Insights work?

Wholesale Price

This is our prediction of what this specific vehicle will sell for in the wholesale market (at auction). This price is meant to help you:

  • Evaluate auction pricing
  • Place competitive bids

How it’s calculated: CarValue uses a machine learning algorithm to analyze millions of wholesale transactions, and calculates a VIN-specific wholesale price estimate based on the transactions for similar vehicles to your VIN. CarValue considers factors like sale price, odometer, sale location, vehicle grade, and sale light to generate price predictions.

Retail Price

This is our prediction of what a dealer can realistically sell this vehicle for to a retail customer assuming that the vehicle is brought up to average “retail standards”. This is because retail transaction data does not include information about the condition of those vehicles when they were sold. 

This price helps you:

  • See how the vehicle is performing in retail sales
  • Plan your retail pricing strategy

How it’s calculated: Carvana looks at the millions of retail transactions that are listed online every day and uses those to generate a retail price prediction at the national level based on the vehicle’s year, make, model, trim, installed packages and odometer. The retail price does not take “grade” into account, as retail vehicles do not have a listed grade. 

Spread

The spread shows the difference between your current bid and our retail price prediction. If you bid $12,500 and the retail prediction is $17,700, then the retail spread is $5,200.

How it’s calculated: Spread = Retail Price – Current Bid Amount (or floor if no one has bid yet)

Important Note On Using These Numbers

CarValue prices are meant as a guide to help inform your decisions, but they do not account for every detail that affects each buyer’s specific situation. Our price estimates do not account for factors such as:

  • Your customer base and their preferences
  • A specific vehicle’s availability in your area
  • Your dealership’s unique positioning or specialization
  • Local economic conditions that may affect demand

Additionally, the wholesale price is specific to the state in which the vehicle is being sold, while the retail price is calculated as a “national average”. 

Lastly, both the Wholesale and Retail prices represent the midpoint of the price prediction, and we expect some vehicles to sell for more than the estimate and some to sell for less, in their respective markets (wholesale vs retail). 

When referring to CarValue Insights, we always recommend starting with them as a guideline and then applying your own expectations based on your market’s dynamics and your personal experience.

Where to Find CarValue on ADESA Clear

The full CarValue Insights appears on the ADESA Clear bid card for eligible vehicles. Look for the CarValue section at the top of the bid card, which displays:

  • Wholesale price on the left
  • Retail price in the center
  • Spread on the right

We also display the CarValue Wholesale Estimate on every vehicle on the Search Results page and My Bids page

Note: CarValue prices are not guaranteed to be available for all vehicles and may not appear when we have insufficient transaction data to make confident predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the CarValue™ Wholesale Price Different From Other Guidebooks?

Unlike other guidebooks, CarValue™ does not calculate the wholesale price as a weighted average of recent transactions for the same year/make/model/trim. Instead, CarValue uses Machine Learning to predict the sale price of a specific VIN based on the overall ADESA market. This is possible because CarValue takes all transactions at ADESA auctions into account in its predictions.

The CarValue™ wholesale model also takes all of the attributes of the specific VIN into account, including variations beyond the trim level such as packages and options. This allows for more variation in pricing within year/make/model/trims.

Additionally, CarValue™ is the only wholesale pricing model largely based on ADESA transactions, making it the most useful valuation guide for buying and selling with ADESA

How can I see the Base CarValue™ Wholesale Price?

CarValue™ wholesale does not calculate a “base price” for a year/make/model/trim or apply “adjustments” to a “base price” in order to reach the final predicted price for a specific VIN. This is because the “base price” that is provided by other guidebooks is based on an average mileage and Condition Report for a given year/make/model/trim, and CarValue does not calculate average prices.

Instead, CarValue™ wholesale predicts a unique VIN-specific price which factors in not only the vehicle’s odometer, Condition Report, and sale location, but also dozens of other data points including vehicle attributes from the VIN, market depreciation, and seasonality.

Why don’t I see CarValue prices for some vehicles?

CarValue prices are not displayed when we have insufficient transaction data from similar vehicles to make a confident prediction. This typically happens when:

  • The vehicle is especially rare or unique
  • It’s a very new model with limited sales history

How accurate are these predictions?

CarValue predictions are based on millions of real transaction records. On average, across all ADESA transactions, CarValue Wholesale predicts prices at roughly 100% retention, and CarValue retail tracks closely to retail price indexes.

However, individual predictions will not always be correct, and actual selling prices will vary.

Why Does The Spread Change over Time?

The CarValue Spread is calculated by subtracting the current bid from the CarValue price prediction. Since we always know the bid amount on an ADESA Clear vehicle, we will update the spread as the bid increases. These updates happen in real-time as you adjust your bid amount, so that you can see the estimated gross profit margin if the vehicle were to sell at the current bid amount. 

Why do some similar vehicles have different CarValue prices?

Even vehicles that have the exact same Year, Make, Model, Trim, and Odometer can have different price predictions based on:

  • Installed options
  • Sale location
  • Grade, sale light, or other vehicle properties

Does the CarValue wholesale prices include fees?

No, the CV Wholesale price is a gross estimate before:

  • Auction fees
  • Transportation costs
  • Reconditioning expenses
  • Holding costs
  • Additional overhead

How often are CarValue prices updated?

All prices are re-calculated once a week to take new transactions into account.

Can I get CarValue prices for vehicles not at auction?

CarValue prices are only available for vehicles listed on ADESA, and we do not currently provide a separate calculator or pricing tool for other vehicles.

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